What to Watch: Election Day

JONATHAN MARTIN AND NATE COHN

Tuesday, November 8, 2016Screen Shot 2016-11-08 at 07.51.52

Election Day is here at last. The United States is set to decide between Hillary Clinton and Donald J Trump.
The long, unusual and often ugly 2016 presidential campaign has been about America’s changing demographics and the shifting coalitions of the two major parties as much as it has been about the two main candidates.
Here is what to look for from the voters, who now get their say.
Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt.
The changing nature of the presidential map — and the coalitions of the two parties — can be deduced from where Mrs. Clinton went on Monday, the day before the election. She was assured enough of her prospects for winning Florida, a state that George W. Bush won twice, not to return to the biggest battleground of them all, but she held her second event in four days in Michigan, a state no Republican has won since 1988.
Mrs. Clinton’s aides expressed confidence that the results will go their way, in large part because of their optimism about  Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia, but they are less bullish about their prospects in Michigan and states like Iowa and Ohio. That is a striking turnabout given how rooted Democrats once were in the industrial Midwest and how much they used to struggle in the South and parts of the West.
Mr. Trump’s way forward.
Mr. Trump has one real path to the presidency: run up the score among white voters without a college degree enough to compensate for his losses among well-educated and nonwhite voters.
National surveys suggest Mr. Trump is poised to fare far better than Mitt Romney did four years ago among those white voters, even if the same surveys show Mrs. Clinton in the lead. Mr. Trump leads that group by an average of 30 points in recent national surveys, compared to Mr. Romney’s 23-point edge in 2012.
A huge Democratic loss among white working-class voters would not just endanger Mrs. Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency, it might also accelerate a broader shift in American politics from the industrial-era fights between labor and business to a post-industrial split between the beneficiaries of globalization and diversity and those who feel they have been left behind.
A new wave.
The number of Hispanics who voted early in Florida this year is about as many as voted in total four years ago. The same story holds in heavily Hispanic areas across the country, whether the Latino neighborhoods of Las Vegas or the Texas counties along the Rio Grande.
Mrs. Clinton’s exact margin among Hispanic voters could prove just as important. She will probably win Latino voters by an even wider margin than President Obama did in 2012.
The Latino vote has the best shot of deciding the election in Florida, where Hispanic voters represent a well-above-average share of the population. Mr. Trump does not have a credible path to the presidency without the state’s 29 Electoral College votes.
Hillary Clinton campaigned at the University of Pittsburgh as part of a four-state trip on Monday.

Doug Mills/The New York Times
By MICHAEL BARBARO

The candidates and their surrogates hopscotched across the United States in the final, frenzied hours of the campaign, with the nation reduced to a string of must-win states.

Crowds cheering for Barack Obama at his inauguration ceremony in 2009.

Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
By MATT FLEGENHEIMER

If 2008 was an emblem of progress as America elected its first black president, 2016 has required the grim acceptance of limits, disappointments and blind spots.

President Obama campaigning for Hillary Clinton at the University of New Hampshire on Monday.

Al Drago/The New York Times
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS

On the final day of campaigning, the president said Mr. Trump would never help working people, and urged the crowd to vote for Hillary Clinton “to continue this journey of progress.”

Senator Bob Dole, Republican of Kansas, the running mate of President Gerald R. Ford, campaigning in 1976 in Fountain Inn, S.C.

Charles Harrity/Associated Press
By MAGGIE HABERMAN

Donald J. Trump or Hillary Clinton will join a select group that knows the sting of a failed national bid. Bob Dole and other former candidates explained the feeling.

Allyson Meyers left the town clerk’s office in Shelburne, Vt., after voting early last month.

Spread of Early Voting Is Forging New Habits and Campaign Tactics

By JEREMY W. PETERS

A record number of Americans have already voted in the presidential election, reshaping how campaigns are waged and how voters see the race in its final days.

Voting machines and other Election Day materials waiting to be distributed to polling places on Monday in Circleville, Ohio.

Voting Rights Advocates and Vigilantes to Watch Polling Stations

By JONATHAN MAHLER AND MICHAEL WINES

Election officials and observers say they are hoping for an orderly final day of voting as various groups planned to deploy at polling places.

Hillary Clinton campaigning in Raleigh, N.C., early Tuesday. Lady Gaga and Jon Bon Jovi both made appearances at the late-night rally.

Doug Mills/The New York Times
By AMY CHOZICK

Over a 21-hour stretch of five events across four states, Mrs. Clinton was embraced by supporters, pop stars and family. And she basked in it.

Donald J. Trump at his final campaign event in Grand Rapids, Mich., early Tuesday. The rally was a return to the base that lifted him to the Republican nomination.

Damon Winter/The New York Times
By ASHLEY PARKER

After 10 rallies in two days, Mr. Trump had lost some of his luster, but the crowd was largely excited to greet him, the standard-bearer of the Republican Party.

Harrisburg, Pa., Oct. 4.

Todd Heisler/The New York Times
By THE NEW YORK TIMES

Hillary Clinton Through a Photographer’s Lens

Des Moines, Jan. 29.

Damon Winter/The New York Times
By DAMON WINTER

A Year of Photographing Donald J. Trump

THE 2016 RACE
Voting in Ohio during the 2012 presidential election. Low turnout early in the day among demographic groups likelier to vote for President Obama made his campaign team think he was going to lose the state (he didn’t).

The Pitfalls of Real-Time Election Projections

By NATE COHN

In a first, results will be estimated before the polls close. It’s hard for even pros to do, and very easy for readers to get the wrong impression.

THE 2016 RACE
Early voters lined up outside the West Regional Library in the Westchester neighborhood in Miami.

This Time, There Really Is a Hispanic Voter Surge

By NATE COHN

Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from Hispanic turnout that is vastly exceeding numbers from four years ago.

New York Times Election Front PagesTake a look at coverage in The Times since the election of Franklin Pierce, with observations by the presidential historian Michael Beschloss.

By ANJALI SINGHVI AND JUGAL K. PATEL

An hour-by-hour look at when states finish voting.

Early voters at San Francisco City Hall filled out long ballots as they cast their votes one week before the election.

Jim Wilson/The New York Times
By NIRAJ CHOKSHI

Where do you vote? What happens when you get there? Here’s what you should know on Election Day.

George Stephanopoulos, center, rehearsed for election night over the weekend at ABC studios in New York City.

Sasha Maslov for The New York Times
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM

Traditional network “decision desks” will be joined this year by digital challengers aiming to shed light on an often opaque vote-data process.

Early voting in Miami. The Justice Department said on Monday that it would deploy over 500 people in 28 states to monitor Election Day practices and guard against intimidation and disruptions.

Angel Valentin for The New York Times
By ERIC LICHTBLAU

The department will deploy more than 500 monitors, a sharp decrease from the 2012 presidential election. Officials blame a 2013 Supreme Court ruling.

Emails belonging to Huma Abedin, a top Clinton aide, were a small share of the 650,000 messages the F.B.I. recently found.

Doug Mills/The New York Times
By ADAM GOLDMAN AND MATT APUZZO

Out of 650,000 emails found last month, only a small portion were potentially related to Hillary Clinton, and many of those were duplicates of messages already examined.

A line formed outside The New York Times building on Eighth Avenue to buy copies of the paper the day after President Obama was elected in 2008.

Earl Wilson/The New York Times
By TODD S. PURDUM

A former longtime political reporter for The Times reflects on Election Days past.

WHITE HOUSE LETTER
President Obama spoke at a campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Kissimmee, Fla., on Sunday.

An Unfinished Presidency: Obama Passes the Baton

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR

As the nation prepares to choose President Obama’s successor, the bold agenda he described eight years ago remains incomplete.

The Supreme Court on Monday refused to intercede in a voter intimidation lawsuit brought by the Ohio Democratic Party against Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign.

Justices Won’t Revive Order Banning Voter Intimidation in Ohio

By ADAM LIPTAK

The Supreme Court turned away a bid to reinstate a trial judge’s order in a case brought by the state’s Democratic Party against Donald J. Trump’s campaign.

JANET RENO, 1938-2016
Janet Reno was sworn in before the Senate Judiciary Committee for her confirmation hearing in March 1993. She became the first woman to hold the position of United States attorney general.

Janet Reno, First Woman to Serve as U.S. Attorney General, Dies at 78

By CARL HULSE

Ms. Reno’s eight years in the office placed her in the middle of some of the most divisive episodes of the Clinton presidency.